Tariffs Are Back. Markets Think It’s Priced In. Are They Right?

Last week ended with renewed tension between the U.S. and Iran, alongside the Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariff measures. Markets initially liked the ruling. Risk sentiment improved, and the Dollar softened.

But over the weekend, the tone shifted again.

The White House confirmed it will pivot to alternative legal authorities to keep tariff policy alive. President Trump has now signed an executive order introducing a new 10% global tariff, with some reports suggesting this could rise to 15%.

Implementation is expected on Tuesday, February 24th.

So the real question for markets this week is simple:

Do traders focus on the court’s ruling, or on the escalation that followed it?

If headlines intensify, volatility will return quickly.

The Data Calendar: Light, But Not Irrelevant

This week is quieter on paper, but there are still important signals.

Monday
Germany IFO surveys are expected to be slightly stronger.
US factory orders are forecast to be lower, modestly Dollar negative.

Wednesday
Eurozone CPI expected at 1.7%, below the ECB’s 2% target. Soft inflation keeps pressure on policymakers and caps Euro upside.

Thursday
US consumer confidence expected to rise to 87.0.
However, this is also the day tariffs are expected to kick in. Data could take a back seat to headlines.
Weekly US jobless claims are forecast higher, which would not help the Dollar.

Friday
Swiss GDP expected at 0.2%.
German flash CPI expected at 2%.
US PPI projected lower at 2.6%, suggesting producer inflation pressures are easing.

FX Levels to Watch

If volatility does pick up, here are the areas I am watching:

• GBPUSD – Holding near 1.35. A break higher opens psychological resistance near 1.40.
• EURUSD – Still flirting with the 1.17-1.18 area. Momentum remains Dollar driven.
• GBPAED – After recent swings between 4.90 and 5.08, positioning feels sensitive.
• USDJPY – Highly reactive to geopolitical tension and risk sentiment shifts.

If tariffs are treated as noise, the Dollar could stay soft.
If markets decide this is genuine escalation, we may see a risk-off bid return quickly.

My View

This is a week where political risk matters more than economic data.

Markets have become increasingly desensitised to tariff headlines. But complacency can unwind fast.

For corporates, property buyers and investors with exposure, this is not the type of week to “see what happens”. It is the type of week to have a plan.

Preparation beats prediction every time.

If you want to stress test your exposure or talk through a strategy, you know where I am.