Canadian Dollar Update

So far in 2015 we have seen massive weakness in the Canadian Dollar- For the Canadian dollar exchange rate complex (CAD) three main drivers will continue to dictate direction:

1. Oil prices;


2. BoC and Fed policy developments;


3. The broad USD move.

The decline in oil has seen a predictable decline on the economy and in turn the value of the CAD against its major trading partners, with an exception being the euro:

The Pound to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBPCAD) started the year at 1.8053 and is now at 1.8685.

The Euro to Canadian dollar (EURCAD) started the year at 1.4136 and is now at 1.3554.

The US Dollar to Canadian dollar (USDCAD) started the year at 1.1777 and now finds itself at 1.2689.

Can oil prices continue to decline? Yes, of course, and many in the industry are predicting further weakness.

However, the distance left to travel lower is diminished and what we can be sure of is that the scope for downside is limited.

As such we see the prospects for an oil-inspired CAD depreciation being similarly diminished.

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